GOP Jumps at Chance to Erode Democrats

By Mike Wereschagin
PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Sunday, March 14, 2010

The national Republican Party hasn't looked away from Rep. Jason Altmire's seat since the McCandless Democrat won it in 2006.

As the Democratic Party's popularity dropped over the past year, the GOP was able to entice its choice candidate, former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan, to take on the two-term incumbent. She has money, party support and -- like just about everyone else running this year -- a challenger in her own party.

Edgeworth Republican Keith Rothfus is one of 68 candidates statewide who filed to get their names on the May 18 primary ballot for congressional races, 40 of them Republicans. That's more than at any time since 2002, when the state's congressional delegation shrank to 19. Though both parties worked to recruit well-known, well-funded candidates, most challengers are political unknowns such as Rothfus.

"There is a hunger for the citizen candidate, for people who are coming from the outside who can push for the changes we need," Rothfus said. "I've talked to candidates in Kansas, Arizona, Virginia -- guys who are just like me, who are frustrated. They've done what they wanted to do in their careers."

About half of the state's races are considered competitive, compared to about one-quarter in the rest of the country, said Isaac Wood, a political scientist at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"You're knee-deep in democracy," said Democratic political strategist Dane Strother of Bethesda, Md.

Of the seven most competitive congressional races -- more than in any other state, according to some rankings -- Democrats are defending five seats to the Republicans' two.

"Any time you see a wealth of candidates, it indicates a wealth of enthusiasm. It's a mirror," said Brad Todd, a Republican congressional campaign strategist in Alexandria, Va.

An unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent, partisan gridlock, a rapid increase in federal deficit spending and the rise of populist movements such as the tea party protests are engaging newcomers in the political process, said Joseph DiSarro, chairman of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College.

"It's the politics of change," DiSarro said.

In addition to Altmire's seat, Republicans are targeting the northeastern seats held by Reps. Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski, Rep. Tim Holden's midstate district, the southeastern seat Rep. Joe Sestak is vacating to run for the Senate, the eastern district of Rep. Patrick Murphy, the late Rep. John Murtha's seat and the northwestern district of Rep. Kathleen Dahlkemper, where six Republicans and one Democrat filed petitions to get on the ballot.

"They definitely have a shot at picking up a half-dozen seats and losing none," Wood said.

Democrats hope to capture the suburban Philadelphia districts of Reps. Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah.

"In this type of year, the best defense is a good offense," Shah said.

President Obama won both of those Republican districts the Democrats are targeting, and Republican Sen. John McCain won five of the six Democratic districts Republicans covet. Most of the targeted Democrats have voting records that are right of center in the House, according to the biennial rankings of the National Journal, a Washington magazine that covers politics.

"Do you want somebody who can get along with both sides? That's what you've got with me," Altmire said. "I'm going to test whether that's what people really want."

Buchanan said the district, which McCain won by 11 percentage points, wants someone who will block legislation such as the stimulus and health care bills.

"If there is a candidate in the 4th Congressional District (who can do that), that candidate is me," Buchanan said.

Altmire defends the $862 billion stimulus bill as a life-preserver for the economy; Buchanan says it's wasteful spending. Buchanan said financial institution bailouts through the Troubled Asset Relief Program prevented the economy from collapsing; Altmire voted against it twice.

Rothfus says they're both wrong.

"Big government, which 12 years ago Bill Clinton said was gone, is back. And to be honest, it started in the early 2000s," Rothfus said.

Party hierarchies favor recognizable candidates, such as Buchanan, and well-funded candidates, such as Republican Tim Burns in Murtha's district.

But the Republican Party risks alienating its most energized voters if its leaders meddle in the primary, Wood said.

In a special election in New York last year, "the national party anointed a candidate without listening to local activists," Wood said. The party's rank-and-file members split between moderates and conservatives. The nominee dropped out and endorsed the Democrat, who became the first in his party to win the district in more than 150 years.

"I think you're going to see these primaries play out to the bitter end," Wood said.

Mike Wereschagin can be reached at mwereschagin@tribweb.com or 412-320-7900.